Thursday Highlights

Ho.

  1. The first sentence highlights a thing I never have understood, the hardship chic, recovering poor/drug abuser/alcoholic/what-have-you as a good thing.
  2. Almost certainly fictional but I laughed anyway.
  3. That immigration thang, #3 is the salient point. This an attack.
  4. D&D strikes again. Speaking of which.
  5. Glub.
  6. Content and intent. Apparently only the latter is required.
  7. Turnabout in politics remains not fair play. The rest of us disagree.
  8. Why?
  9. For those who think net security is never needed.
  10. A worse job than yours … assuming that the guy who has that job isn’t reading this.
  11. Hmm. Knowing how long you have to wait makes a big difference.
  12. Subway.
  13. Advertising done right.

23 Responses to Thursday Highlights

  1. 1.The first sentence highlights a thing I never have understood, the hardship chic, recovering poor/drug abuser/alcoholic/what-have-you as a good thing.

    Kind of ties in with what I said about Chelsea Clinton and what is deemed ‘polite’ behavior by the upper crust.

    3.That immigration thang, #3 is the salient point. This an attack.

    #3 is moronic. Refugees aren’t normally organized? Of course they are, humans are social creatures and will spontaneously organize and will do so very quickly. See the literature, for example, on POW camps where markets developed almost instantly.

    If coyotes can demonstrate to parents that they can get their kids over the boarder safely the ‘market’ will appear out of nowhere. And from their perspective it actually makes more sense. If you’re brining adults and children one car can fit one family. If you’re just bringing just kids you can get several families worth through in one carload. Much more efficient, the only barrier to selling that service is convincing parents that their kids aren’t going to end up dead in the desert, once that’s done the flood gate is open.

  2. 9.For those who think net security is never needed.

    Yea I don’t buy that this chip will ‘know when you have sex’. Clearly the remote control aspect is because if it’s going to be in 16 years, the patient would want the ability to have it turned on and off either if she decides it’s time to have a child or if some medical issue presents itself requiring birth control be temporarily suspended. I also don’t buy the ‘prevents implantation’ argument. Contraception prevents the release of an egg from the ovary, no egg no conception nothing to prevent from implanting. At most I suspect the closest you get to that is if you happen to start birth control right after you had sex and unknowingly conceived and the pill happens to take effect at just the right moment that implantation would happen. Not impossible but pretty unlikely and pretty preventable. The meme on the right that contraception is no different from abortion needs to be challenged…esp. since the consquence of rejecting contraception is probably more actual abortions.

    Anyway I recall some story a while ago about the Secret Service being very worried about Cheney’s pacemaker. It’s much more creepy IMO that targetted hackers can tell some device in your body to kill you. This is only going to be a bigger problem as I suspect more and more active medical devices are going to be invented and implanted in our bodies.

  3. Boonton,
    I think the danger would be more at that an intentional or unintentional cracking of your security would dump too much drug into you and kill you or cause very adverse effects.

  4. Boonton,

    #3 is moronic.

    Except that is isn’t. Suddenly 10k children per week are flooding our borders mostly not from Mexico (apparently) but further afield. But this is all spontaneous? Bullcrap.

    If coyotes can demonstrate to parents that they can get their kids over the boarder safely the ‘market’ will appear out of nowhere.

    BS. Why? Why is any parent going to send his 6 y/old thousands of miles without any way of contacting their parents any more. Do you not think that these parents love their children?

    Much more efficient, the only barrier to selling that service is convincing parents that their kids aren’t going to end up dead in the desert, once that’s done the flood gate is open.

    I’m sorry. “Your kid won’t die right away” is not an argument to send them to the unknown. I’m not buying what your selling. You need to tell me why you think two parents are going to send their 5-8 y/old away from home forever. Why? What sales pitch gets you to buy into that?

  5. That would seem to be a danger for any medical device that essentially runs ‘software’. Do you trust Windows not to crash and kill you by releasing too much/little insulin?

    Except that is isn’t. Suddenly 10k children per week are flooding our borders mostly not from Mexico (apparently) but further afield. But this is all spontaneous?

    I’m unclear why you think this is proof of planning or some over-arching intention?

    BS. Why? Why is any parent going to send his 6 y/old thousands of miles without any way of contacting their parents any more.

    Why no way of contacting parents? These kids have absolutely no relatives or support in the US? If they were intercepted at the border where would they have ended up? On the street? Unlikely, I suspect they would have been with people who would have been able to communicate with their parents.

    As for why a parent would do such a thing, well I guess it depends on the circumstances doesn’t it?

    I’m sorry. “Your kid won’t die right away” is not an argument to send them to the unknown. I’m not buying what your selling. You need to tell me why you think two parents are going to send their 5-8 y/old away from home forever. Why? What sales pitch gets you to buy into that?

    So you’re saying some vast conspiracy of ‘attackers’ is not only attacking the US by sending kids here but is also stealing them, en mass, from their parents? That would seem to resolve the problem pretty easily, the parents could just say to the US embassy “if you have our kids please give them back”? Or are all these parents in on the ‘attack’ and happy to give up their kids for it?

  6. Boonton,

    That would seem to be a danger for any medical device that essentially runs ‘software’.

    No. It’s a danger for any device that’s on the Internet.

    I’m unclear why you think this is proof of planning or some over-arching intention?

    You think its spontaneous? Why? If it is spontaneous there should be an obvious (reported) reason for that sudden flood. If you don’t know why or think there is no cause, then it

    Why no way of contacting parents?

    OK. What 6 y/old can contact his parents while lost in a foreign country surrounded by strangers. These kids are really well educated. Why then did they leave if they have such amazing skills.

    So you’re saying some vast conspiracy of ‘attackers’ is not only attacking the US by sending kids here but is also stealing them, en mass, from their parents?

    I did not say that. I didn’t say the parents were “happy” to do this. I doubt they are. You have not explained why you think the sudden influx is occurring. After all you ask “As for why a parent would do such a thing, well I guess it depends on the circumstances doesn’t it?” That is the crux isn’t it. You’ve offered no explanation. As far as I can tell nobody has. Seems to me that’s the first most important question, but the beltway morons are asking no such questions. They’ve even confused you enough to figure “guest passes” for seasonal workers would fix this.

    At better question than

    If they were intercepted at the border where would they have ended up?

    If not intercepted where would the end up? Slave labor? Child abuse? Working the basement of some restaurant or sold to sexual predators? Hmm.

    Unlikely, I suspect they would have been with people who would have been able to communicate with their parents.

    Cite. Why do you think this might be reasonably expected.

  7. Boonton,
    Remember the Bond quote, “Once is happenstance, Twice is coincidence, Three times is enemy action.” … Ten thousand times … well, geesh.

  8. No. It’s a danger for any device that’s on the Internet.

    ? If the device is running software and if the device is mechanically able to kill you (say by releasing an overdose of a drug) then buggy software merits as much worry…even if the device has no ‘wifi’.

    You think its spontaneous? Why? If it is spontaneous there should be an obvious (reported) reason for that sudden flood. If you don’t know why or think there is no cause, then it

    What exactly do you mean by spontaneous? Say it was all planned by some secret society. Why did they choose now? Why not a year from now or a year before? Even if it was all planned it’s still essentially spontaneous unless you know why now was choosen rather than some other time.

    OK. What 6 y/old can contact his parents while lost in a foreign country surrounded by strangers.

    Suppose the kids were not intercepted, were they just going to end up on the streets? I strongly suspect if they weren’t intercepted they would have ended up either with extended family living in the US or with some people who would have known how to get in touch with their parents.

    I did not say that. I didn’t say the parents were “happy” to do this. I doubt they are. You have not explained why you think the sudden influx is occurring. After all you ask “As for why a parent would do such a thing, well I guess it depends on the circumstances doesn’t it?” That is the crux isn’t it. You’ve offered no explanation.

    Well look at it this way, it’s Nazi Germany and the last transit ship taking Jews to America is leaving and they will only accept one more child. You may toss your 6 year old on board hoping fellow Jews or kind souls in the US will give him a better life than he would have as the Nazi’s close in around you. That would be a dire case yet as far as I know nothing like that is happening now in Latin America.

    We know from the Nigerian case that even in 3rd world countries, mass kidnapping of children does make the International media. So it’s not like some group has kidnapped tens of thousands of children to send them to the US for some unclear purpose. So that implies that most of the children were sent by their parents and it’s likely that most of those parents thought the children had a reasonable shot at being found and cared for by someone who’d treat them well. That implies the intended target of the children is family or community that is living now in the US.

    If those assumptions are correct then you may have your answer to the ‘spontaneous’ aspect. If smugglers ‘innovated’ in the market by offering parents the reasonable expectations that they could successfully get their children to the US and bring them to people who would care for them then you could get a ‘floodgate opening’ effect. This would require no master plan or even coordination on the part of any particular people or group. As I pointed out it may very well be easier to smuggle small children than it is children plus assorted adults.

  9. also note http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2014/07/facts-about-latino-children.html

    60,000 children may seem like a lot but in terms of migrations it’s actually a rather modest number. According to http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/09/us/illegal-border-crossings-dip-sharply.html?_r=0 in 2010 about 448,000 illegal border crossings were intercepted. Say the rate of interception is 50% that means nearly 1M illegal crossings per year (note we’re just talking about crossings, not net migration, each year some illegals cross back the other way and leave the country). 60K children seen from that perspective may indeed end up being a ‘spontaneous’ blip in the data that is getting blown up by the media, sort of like the epidemic of swimmer-shark attacks a few years ago.

  10. Boonton,

    If the device is running software and if the device is mechanically able to kill you (say by releasing an overdose of a drug) then buggy software merits as much worry…even if the device has no ‘wifi

    Yes. Buggy device software can kill you. However low or absent security networked devices can kill you absent buggy software. Your valuables may be safe in a simple lock box at home, that depends on the design of the lock box. Put that lock box on the front lawn … and even if it is well designed it may not be secure.

    What exactly do you mean by spontaneous? Say it was all planned by some secret society.

    Remember what our difference of opinion is based on. You claim this is driven by new domestic conditions vis a vis immigration. You said that it is now in the news and I pointed out that immigration has been in the news just like it is now since the middle of the Bush admin. I’ve pointed out that the domestic discussions about immigration are basically the same now as they were 10 years ago. Nothing there has changed. So, since nothing domestically here has changed … but suddenly we are getting a new thing at the border. Again. Why? My claim is that the change is at the source. You’ve said nothing to belie that. You’ve also given no reason to suspect that there isn’t any underground movement to send kids over. In the absence of domestic immigration change or significant refugee or other reasons to abandon your children to high risk flight … a likely alternative is an underground coordinated effort.

    If smugglers ‘innovated’ in the market by offering parents the reasonable expectations that they could successfully get their children to the US

    Why do you think that happened? Do you a reason to believe that? You’d think “innovation” would be reported. But alas, possibly not, if the media is stupid enough to follow the beltway moronic pronouncements on this and not consider looking at why this is happening and finding out what the parents of these kids were thinking when they sent (abandoned?) their 6 y/old 1st graders off on a 2000 mile trek alone. We will have to wait I think until someone in the media who can do this for a day job (and travel if needed to South America) grows a brain.

  11. Boonton,
    A number isn’t a rate. A rate is a #er/time. The 448k is per year. The 60k is per week I believe. Nobody I’ve seen is denying that there is any change and for the last decade have had bases and gyms full of minors who were sent willy nilly over the border.

    If it is in fact just a media thing .. then the President is being unusually dishonest even by his standards.

  12. Why do you think that happened? Do you a reason to believe that? You’d think “innovation” would be reported.

    Really? It would? Do new reporters often ‘shop’ the latest services offered by smugglers? I suspect as with drug dealers ‘innovations’ will mostly be discovered after the product has hit the market.

    Remember what our difference of opinion is based on. You claim this is driven by new domestic conditions vis a vis immigration.

    Recall my analogy of driving down the road with bad breaks. You hit a real curvy part and blame your accident on the curvy road. I blame it on your bad breaks. In this case both perspectives have a degree of truth. If the road was nice, straight and even you probably could get away with bad breaks on it. On the other hand if you kept your breaks good you could have handled the curve without a problem.

    You don’t control how they build the roads, you do control what type of car you drive. Hence rather than try to prey for straight roads, you should keep your breaks maintained. Likewise if you ask “why did I have an accident”, I’ll respond simply that you didn’t fix your breaks. You’ll respond asking why did they put a curve in that road digging up blueprints from 1950 and so on…

  13. http://www.miamiherald.com/2014/07/15/4237933/migrant-children-deserve-protected.html

    It’s 50,000 kids over the last two years, not 60,000 kids per week. Working with a rough estimate of 1M illegal crossings per year you have maybe 2.5% which are kids absent parents.

  14. Boonton,

    Really? It would?

    If there is an increase in unaccompanied minors (which everyone but you seem to think is the case) then the first question someone reporting on this find to answer is why? Why the increase?

    I suspect as with drug dealers ‘innovations’ will mostly be discovered after the product has hit the market.

    And … voila. It has hit. So, reporters should tell us why.

    You hit a real curvy part and blame your accident on the curvy road.

    Or you have a slightly older car (like you do) and you drive across an open field at 90 mph. Things shake off and fly apart. Is the fault of the car or the road surface and speed? You might think you only have control of your car, but that’s disingenuous (a typical liberal ploy). You do realize the US can influence foreign countries responses to us in a variety of ways.

    Again. Why the increase. ’cause if you want to claim there is no increase, you’ll have to admit to extreme dishonesty by the administration which you are likely loath to do.

  15. Boonton,
    Actually if you are driving on a curvy road with bad breaks the accident is not the fault of the brakes. You knew the curves were ahead and you knew the condition of your car. You could just downshift and drive at a safe speed. Still your fault.

  16. If there is an increase in unaccompanied minors (which everyone but you seem to think is the case) then the first question someone reporting on this find to answer is why? Why the increase?

    Not clear that there is a non-trivial increase. 2.5% of the population being unaccompanied minors is a small portion.

    And … voila. It has hit. So, reporters should tell us why.

    If this isn’t a sudden increase then reporters may be at a serious disadvantage. Since they represent only 2.5% of the population of illegal crossers, they are likely to find not a single story but a lot of ancedotes. It’s like trying to ask why did unemployment go from 6% to 7%. Ask around and you’ll get a lot of individual stories but will that get you to THE CAUSE? Is there even a cause?

    You do realize the US can influence foreign countries responses to us in a variety of ways.

    True, and we should try to make our roads safer but ultimately it’s easier for us to control inside our country than outside our country. I’m all for trying to influence Latin America towards positive development….I would favor that regardless of what impact that has on illegal immigration but again if my car’s breaks were bad I’d look into getting a break job instead of writing letters to the DoT asking them to improve highways.

  17. Boonton,

    Not clear that there is a non-trivial increase.

    Yes. Problems either way. If there is no increase (or very little) you have a political problem, you are being lied to badly and baldly. If there is an increase then there is a failure to investigate, and the question then is why a failure. Either way it’s bad reporting. In the first case the reporters should be telling you loud and clear there is no increase and this is a false/manufactured crises. In the second, good reporting would be telling you the reasons and causes.

    Ask around and you’ll get a lot of individual stories but will that get you to THE CAUSE? Is there even a cause?

    Actually you’d probably get 3-4 stories with minor variations.

    I would favor that regardless of what impact that has on illegal immigration but again if my car’s breaks were bad I’d look into getting a break job instead of writing letters to the DoT asking them to improve highways.

    But what your claiming is that you hit a curvy section of road, road through just like you did every day of the week and you tell your parents and friends that you crashed.

    That still begs the question of who and why the frak sends their 6 year old alone as an illegal into a foreign country. That’s completely insane.

  18. Boonton,

    2.5% of the population being unaccompanied minors is a small portion

    You do realize that the number of unacompanied minors is lower than that on domestic airliners within the US.

  19. Yes. Problems either way. If there is no increase (or very little) you have a political problem, you are being lied to badly and baldly.

    Not necessarily. A swing of 25,000 kids per year could, on a base population of 0.5-1M essentially be a random gyration in the data. That wouldn’t change the fact that additional resources are needed to deal with a sudden increase in unaccompanied minors while an increase of 25,000 adults would be easily handled by the existing system.

    If there is an increase then there is a failure to investigate, and the question then is why a failure.

    There does seem to be lots of ink being spilled on the topic, no doubt people are trying to find an answer. My contribution to this effort is to present the possibility that there might be no answer beyond randomness at play here.

    You do realize that the number of unacompanied minors is lower than that on domestic airliners within the US.

    You do realize that the Us has spent the last few decades infantizing kids. If you recall in Godfather II the Don’s rather banal story was being sent to America as an unaccompanied minor of maybe 10 or so? Note how that didn’t even cause an eyebrow to go up by officials at the time.

  20. Boonton,

    There does seem to be lots of ink being spilled on the topic, no doubt people are trying to find an answer.

    No. They are not trying to find an answer. They are trying to find a narrative that fits their preconceived policy goals (see also: global warming).

  21. Boonton,
    Regarding unaccompanied minors on domestic flights, you do realize divorce hasn’t tapered off and kids traveling unaccompanied is often used to shuttle kids back and forth on when a parent moves to another city a non-drive-able distance away. Flights are quite cheap especially for regular trips that you can schedule well in advance.

  22. Actually I just gave you an answer that, though it doesn’t contradict my preferred policy goals, doesn’t particularly advance them in one direction or another. Namely that this ‘surge’ is a normal part of the random variation of noisy data.

  23. Boonton,
    Apparently the numbers are not insignificant. A co-worker remarked that they’ve doubled, that in the first half year we’ve already received what we did in a full year last.

    Again, if this is statistically insignificant it means the Administration has been telling lies trying to manufacture a crises for political purposes. If is not insignificant, then they should not have been surprised and behind the times. A Chicago journalist remarks that violence has gotten substantially worse in, I think, Guatemala or Costa Rica … I don’t remember which. This he suggests might be one trigger. Apparently some out there have figured out “why” is a germane question even if none of those are apparently in the Beltway.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>