Thursday Highlights

Good, well, evening

  1. Well, students of politics (not theology), might point out that is obvious, central and government power has been steadily on the rise again since, well, Rome fell (further reading: Bertrand de Jouvenel “On Power“, which is a good book if you prefer the sort that encourages you to stop every page or so and ponder what you’ve just read).
  2. It is, admittedly, easier to see other’s blind spots than your own.
  3. Dead man walking perhaps not so dead.
  4. Storage hints.
  5. Interesting, but translate that to the beltway and BS …. yikes.
  6. Talking virtue again.
  7. Not a neo-nazi skinhead.
  8. Lessons from the liberal press on how not to retract.
  9. When putting a blog post “unclear on the concept” normally one should try to refer to something other than yourself. To whit “more likely” has very little to the running of one experiment. When I roll a die, I am more likely to roll a number of spots greater than 2 than I am a number less than or equal to two. That I did roll a die and get a one (and therefore have 100% chance I did roll a 1 is not relevant to the prior probability estimate). Mr Schilling, it is alas, you who are unclear on the concept.
  10. Evil witches.

 

9 Responses to Thursday Highlights

  1. #1 reminds me of my weight. I have people constantly telling me I’ve lost weight. Thing is, they’ve been saying this to me for years, even decades now.

    Possible explanations:
    Back in my early 20′s I must have weighted 400 lbs and lost a huge amount.

    People’s perceptions are off, my weight has been roughly about the same but people might have been thinner back then so I seemed fatter or they are blowing a minor loss of a few pounds out of porportion etc.

    So if you’re going to say gov’t power has been increasing since the fall of Rome then if they invent time machines you should be happy if I send you on a one way ticket backwards. I could be snarky and suggest Russia under Stalin, France under the terror, England under Cromwell. But if that’s too extreme how about the USA under Nixon where interstate trucking rates were micromanaged in Washington and individual oil wells in the US had different prices they were allowed to sell their oil at rather than simply the market price?

  2. #9

    Dice, of course, are highly controlled devices. For example, had Zimmerman been black, I think it would be much less likely he would have volunteered for a neighborhood watch and if he had done so would have carryed a concealed weapon and stalked a black kid for frankly no real reason. So to me it seems NR’s counterfactual is miscalculated.

    Or are they speaking about generic encounters violent encounters between whites and blacks? Perhaps in that case you find a higher chance of shooting happening from black to white rather than the other way around. What, though, are we supposed to learn from that? About 90% of crime is intRAracial (if you’re white and today you’re going to be shot to death, odds are about 90% it will be a white person doing it and vice versa if your black) so you’re actually talking about a rather marginal sub-population of crime.

  3. Boonton,
    Dice was a simple probability example to explain the faulty logic in the posters premise.

    For example, had Zimmerman been black, I think it would be much less likely he would have volunteered for a neighborhood watch …

    Except that neighborhood watches are an urban inner city thing, so you have your logic wrong, i.e., most neighborhood watches are in black/hispanic neighborhoods populated by the same.

    “Frankly no reason” … except Mr Martin (as noted) had likely done B&E before and “no reason” is a fallacy. There had been a spate of robberies. Any lone young adult late at night was a suspect.

  4. “Frankly no reason” … except Mr Martin (as noted) had likely done B&E before and “no reason” is a fallacy.

    Let’s take this as a given, exactly how would a Zimmerman (either in our universe or the black-Zimmerman of Multiverse variant 213-4222A) have known this?

    Except that neighborhood watches are an urban inner city thing, so you have your logic wrong,

    Was this an inner city?

  5. Boonton,

    Was this an inner city?

    Uhm, this was to correct two misconceptions you had, that Neighbohood watch was a “white” thing, and that they sit in cars.

    Or were you suggesting if Mr Zimmerman had been a black man in a predominantly non-black neighborhood he wouldn’t have volunteered? Now there is a possibility that any odd person out culturally or racially might feel constrained not to join neighborhood groups. So what?

  6. Boonton

    Let’s take this as a given, exactly how would a Zimmerman (either in our universe or the black-Zimmerman of Multiverse variant 213-4222A) have known this?

    That’s not the point. You offered that Mr Martin should not have been suspicious. I countered that any lone teenager would be an object of suspicion (such as the relatives you indicated) and furthermore suspicion of Mr Martin would not have been unwarranted, as B&E was an activity which was possibly in his back history.

  7. I countered that any lone teenager would be an object of suspicion ..

    Err not really, you countered that Martin may have been involved in a B&E at a previous time and place. That’s something that would only be applicable to a minority of teenagers.

    If the principle now is that any lone teenager walking at 7PM on a Sunday night merits a call to 911 and a request for cops to question him (or her) I can more or less gurantee Zimmerman was biased in his application. I do not believe for a moment Martin was the first lone teen he ever saw walking on his numerous watches.

    Also an ‘object of suspicion’ has to be an object based on available evidence. Neither my relatives nor Martin would have qualified if you’re asserting the reasons they should be suspected are things that could not be observed at the time and place. In fact, even if past history is known that wouldn’t make one a valid suspect. Recall at least 6% of whites have spent some time in a correctional institution. Would it make sense to have them questioned by cops every time they walk somewhere? Even chronic criminals spend 99% of their time not committing crimes.

  8. Boonton,

    Err not really, you countered that Martin may have been involved in a B&E at a previous time and place.

    No. The first time I noted that and continued … From my comment on 7/27. Quoting myself:

    There had been a spate of robberies. Any lone young adult late at night was a suspect.

    When you responded I clarified once again that “like your relatives” lone teenagers would be suspect. And yes, an “object of suspiciion” needs to be based on available evidence … you mean like a neighborhood being subject to a serial set of B&E robberies?

    Would it make sense to have them questioned by cops every time they walk somewhere?

    No. Of course not, but we aren’t talking about that. We’re talking about a N-hood watch member keeping an eye on lone teens, which costs nothing and is unintrusive, unless the teen is belligerent and defensive and willing to commit assault and battery.

  9. Why would ‘lone teens’ be suspect again if there were a spat of B&E’s? Was there any evidence the B&E’s were done by teens? Or by lone criminals for that matter (as opposed to teams of people)? 7PM on Sunday night seems like an odd time to be doing B&E’s.

    B&E’s are very common unless you live in a very upscale area so it’s kind of a big deal to say all lone teens will get 911′d if there are any.

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