Monday/Tuesday Highlights

Good morning. Have a happy election day, y’all. And no, your vote doesn’t matter, what you are doing is a liturgical communal act validating righteousness of the electoral process.

  1. Here’s a prediction from the right what will happen if they lose. Has anyone seen similar predictions from the left?
  2. Today we vote, our democratic ritual. About rituals and religion you ask? Here, try this.
  3. 10 symmetries. 10 conserved quantities.
  4. A house which says a lot about property values (and … not having kids?)
  5. People who say “there are no stupid questions” … never attended lectures, but in the meantime
  6. Politicians and their lies.
  7. A political scientist offers his two cents.
  8. Health and a Fields Medal winner.
  9. Speaking of health.
  10. A book recommended. I bought a copy.
  11. Today the WSJ opinion section has an article pointing out that Dodd-Frank encourages moving high finance overseas … which is interesting in conjunction with this. There’s lots of talk about “unintended consequences” … what is largely ignored are the easy-to-anticipate consequences like these.
  12. The auto bailout.
  13. Mr Krugman jousts with straw men, but not unnoticed by all.
  14. I can’t anticipate any problems with using open unsecured unverifiable mechanisms for voting. Can you?

6 Responses to Monday/Tuesday Highlights

  1. 11.Today the WSJ opinion section has an article pointing out that Dodd-Frank encourages moving high finance overseas … which is interesting in conjunction with this. There’s lots of talk about “unintended consequences” … what is largely ignored are the easy-to-anticipate consequences like these.

    Not sure about Dodd-Frank…..

    The part-time to avoid Obamacare is an interesting idea to explore. The cost saved is $2,000 per worker but at the price of having to hire more workers. Assume 100 workers were doing 40 hours a week but an employer makes them 30 hours. There’s now a gap of 1,000 hours per week to fill which means the employer must hire something like 33 or 34 additional part time workers. That may be a good solution in a deep recession when you have lots of unemployed workers to pick from and your current workers are just happy to have a job. What happens as employment recovers? The wage you have to pay to hire 33 workers dedicated to week that is only 30 hours (which is too long to be real part time work and too short for full time work) means at some point it’s going to cost more than the $2000 to hire extra workers at short hours. In which case you revert to more full time workers instead of lots of part time workers.

    The positive in either case, though, is expanded coverage. The unknown question is will the system move away from employer provided health insurance and towards consumer purchased insurance via the exchanges or will the US retain employer provided coverage as the norm? A part time shift might break insurance away from employers, which is something the right has been advocating for a long time.

  2. Mark,

    Thanks very much for the shout out to my blog. There are indeed 10 associated conserved quantities, and some time soon I hope to explain why.

    By the way, my most recent post is an argument that voting does frequently make a significant (expected value) difference in the outcome.

  3. 1.Here’s a prediction from the right what will happen if they lose. Has anyone seen similar predictions from the left?

    So not much time now to put my prediction in.

    If Obama wins, I predict most Republicans will turn into hypocrites. Pre-win, they will claim an Obama win could only happen via voter fraud, conspiracies, etc. Post-win, they’ll forget all those convictions and accept the results (perhaps with a frown, but accept them nonetheless).

    If Romney wins, liberals will go geek. They will want to reverse engineer the polls to try to figure out what went wrong (key place to look, early voting is creating a time warp, if people are going to vote up to a week or more before election day there’s some votes will be from the opinion back then versus opinions right now…). They will be upset and generally feel America made the wrong call (which it would). Now if Romney wins via some type of Bush II Florida dispute, then it may get ugly but that depends on circumstances.

    Betting markets are breaking Obama at the moment, Intrade up to 70%. Calling Florida for Romney, Ohio for Obama and a slight call for Obama to win VA which would be a surprise.

  4. Mark your clocks, betting markets have broke for Obama at 9:39 PM EST. Contrast this with what you’re seeing on TV. TV will ‘milk’ the drama. For example, CNN has called a few Romney states but hasn’t called some obvious Obama states like PA and NH to make it seem like there’s still a suspenseful story happening.

  5. Boonton,

    Pre-win, they will claim an Obama win could only happen via voter fraud, conspiracies, etc. Post-win, they’ll forget all those convictions and accept the results (perhaps with a frown, but accept them nonetheless).

    I didn’t see any of the former. Cite?

    So … did my prediction hold? That there would be a number of polls in which the results do not fall within the error bar of the predictions? I haven’t checked yet.

  6. Well Nate Silver seems to have hit it almost dead on the nail and he was using a sort of ‘poll of polls’ system.

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